MLB DFS Weather May 23

Brief Summary
PPD Threat: CHC(50%), BAL(50%), WSH(60%), PHI(10%), ATL(10%)
Delay Threats: CHC(70%), BAL(70%), WSH(75%), PHI(30%), NYY and NYM(10% late), ATL(15%)
Good Hitting Environments: CIN, ARI
Poor Hitting Environments: TB, NYM

Weather Stats

wdt_IDGameParkTimeWindRainAir DensityHitting RatingPitcher RatingDelay RiskPPD RiskIn Game RiskConfidence
335 SF@CHC 07:00 PM In from R 10 mph 85 5.00 4 6 70 50 6 70
336 MIN@BAL 07:05 PM VAR 85 6.00 6 4 70 50 6 70
337 KC@NYY 07:05 PM L/V 15 5.00 5 5 10 2 2 90
338 COL@PHI 07:05 PM VAR 60 5.00 5 5 30 10 3 80
339 TEX@BOS 07:10 PM In from R 7 mph 0 5.00 5 5 0 0 1 100
340 CLE@CIN 07:10 PM L/V 0 6.00 6 4 0 0 1 100
341 SD@NYM 07:10 PM L/V 15 5.00 4 6 10 2 2 90
342 LAA@TB 07:10 PM N/A 0 6.00 3 7 0 0 1 100
343 PIT@ATL 07:35 PM L to R 7 mph 20 6.50 7 3 15 10 3 80
351 SEA@WSH 07:05 PM L/V 80 6.50 5 5 75 60 7 70


Weather Analysis

wdt_IDGamePre-Game AnalysisIn Game Analysis
315 SF@CHC Rain threatens this game. Both a delay and PPD threat.
316 MIN@BAL Rain threatens this game as well. Both a PPD and delay concern.
317 KC@NYY Looks like the rain holds off until after the game. No wind, dry air in place. Not a great night for the ball to carry.
318 COL@PHI Some light rain will try to move in during the game. Not a PPD threat, small delay threat.
319 TEX@BOS Summer weather is not in Boston yet. Ball will not carry very well here.
320 CLE@CIN A spectacular evening for a baseball game. Temps near 70, not humid, no threat of rain.
321 LAA@TB Dome. One of the more difficult parks to HR in.
322 PIT@ATL Rain threatens this game. Both a relatively small delay and even smaller PPD threat.
323 SEA@WSH Rain threatens this game. Both a delay and PPD threat.
331 SD@NYM Rain looks to hold off until very late or after the game. Not a great night for the ball to carry.



Forecast Analysis

SF@CHC

Ironic that the same 5 cities that had the threat of rain yesterday will have the threat of rain again today. Anyways, let’s looked at some simulated radars (this game starts an hour early, 7PM eastern):

Looks like a rather steady rain falls this evening. Not overly heavy though. Let’s see what the surface feature is causing this rain:

Chicago is to the northwest of a surface low, exactly where you want to be if you want a steady, soaking rain event. While maybe it is a bit much to call this soaking, it is certainly going to rain. Both a delay and PPD threat.

MIN@BAL, KC@NYY, COL@PHI, SD@NYM, SEA@WSH

Lumping these 5 games together because of their geographical proximity. As we can see in the map above, we have another surface area of low pressure coming up the mid-Atlantic coast. All 5 cities are forecast to be on the NW edge of the rain. Let’s see if the simulated radars can give us more detail:

 

 

Well, from these simulated radars we can see that the NYY game will more than likely be fine. And I would say that PHI very well could be too. That front, northern edge of rain is going to be fighting dry air, and an hour or 2 of “virga” (which is defined as precipitation that falls from the clouds but does not reach the ground because it evaporates) would be a blessing for PHI allowing them to play as it could be dry until 9PM or so. Different story in BAL and DC. Good news is that the rain is not going to be overly heavy. Bad news is that it will rain all night in Camden Yards and in DC.

PIT@ATL

Simulated radars:

Seems like a nuisance more than anything, something to keep an eye on but not a major threat. But the map above does show a surface feature on it nearby to ATL so maybe this is something more serious than what this short-term model is showing. Anyways, will be watching the radar.